Bioclimatic scenarios for sheep production systems in Ciego de Ávila, Cuba
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Abstract
This paper interprets the bioclimatic scenarios for sheep production systems in Ciego de Ávila for 2030, 2050 and 2100 in the scenarios called representative concentration pathways 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. Data of accumulated ambient temperature and average relative humidity from the PRECIS-CARIBE regional model were monthly used for this purpose. The interpretation was based on scientific literature on the behavior of sheep under heat stress. The results showed a future environment with favorable meteorological conditions for the development of heat stress in sheep. Temperatures will range from 28.5 to 39.6 °C, depending on the type of scenario and the year. Relative humidity will reach values between 60.5 and 85%, which will generate temperature and relative humidity indices of 89.5 to 95.2 u. The optimal conditions for sheep to be in thermal welfare are lower than the scenarios for 2030, 2050 and 2100. The presence of trees and the development of silvopastoral systems constitute an alternative to mitigate adverse climatic conditions. Bioclimatic scenarios provide information for future planning and management of sheep rearing, selection of actions and care that promote the application of a climate-smart agriculture from the climatic point of view, which contributes to the sustainable production of these animals.
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