Effect of climate change on milk production in productive enterprices from Jimaguayú, Camagüey province

J. Somoza, J. M. Febles, R Rangel, E. Sedeño, Odalys Brito


In the absence of bioclimatic models, and given the scarcity of information about parameters and other input data, the panel data methodology was applied to establish the magnitude and direction of expected consequences in milk production, which is the main economic activity of Jimaguayú municipality. This study presents a summary about the theory of panel data models. Several specifications are evaluated, obtaining expressions of long-term elasticity of rainfall and temperature and its effect on milk production. Applied empirical models indicate that milk production in Jimaguayú could decrease by approximately 200 thousand L per year, due to the combined effect of the decrease in rainfall and the increase in temperature, with economic losses in the order of constant 100 thousand dollars informed in 2014. Keywords: empirical panel data models, bioclimatic models, climatic elasticity

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